The US Masters Golf tournament is one of the most prestigious events on the golf calendar.
It is my favourite tournament of the year for Betfair trading for several reasons. But mainly because it’s the most profitable!
There are many ways to profit at the US Masters, so let’s explore some suitable strategies.
Backing more than one player
Finding a golf tournament winner is tough when the field sizes are enormous. Typically, many players will be tipped to do well or be in contention.
To overcome this, many Bet Angel users use the Advanced Dutching tool. The concept is simple: pick any players you think could win and the amount you want to win if they wear the green jacket.
Bet Angel will do some clever maths and tell you how much it would cost to place that bet. This allows you to manage your risk while picking a likely winner.
It’s a great way of betting on a Golf tournament. You get to pick any one of any number of players and decide how much you are willing to stake to get that winner.
This is unique to using a betting exchange where the low book overround makes this a viable strategy.
Trading Golf
Most of the money is matched in-play for Golf Majors, so that is where I spend most of my time.
Understanding the course is crucial to trading golf effectively. So you will need to know how the course plays and which are the easier or harder holes.
As players approach the harder holes, you would likely look to lay them as they go through holes where they could drop shots. If they’re going through easier holes and another group of players is going through a more challenging set, you could back those players further along on their particular round.
It’s likely that group will pick up shots on the easier holes just as their fellow competitors enter the more demanding section. It is my favourite trading tactic.
How Augusta plays
The Masters is played at the same course every year. So there is plenty of information to help you understand how it plays.
For example, Holes 1-3, which includes the short par 4 Hole 1, plays at a combined score of -0.03 under par.
In 2021, Holes 10-13 had a combined average score of approximately +1.3 over par.
I’ll post the course profile on the Bet Angel forum, if you want to see how it plays in full.
Laying at low odds
The best illustration of this trading tactic was Jordan Spieth’s collapse in the 2016 US Masters tournament. On the 10th hole, Spieth hit two shots into the water and eventually made a quadruple-bogey 7. He followed that up with bogeys on the 11th and 12th holes, and suddenly his lead had evaporated.
Danny Willett, priced as high as 200 before the tournament, played ‘percentage’ golf and eventually won by three shots. Speith was matched at odds of just 1.09 heading into that 10th hole, and a lay on Speith at that point would have yielded a return of roughly ten times your stake.
I also watch the scoring closely to see how the holes play each day due to a couple of additional factors.
Pin positions
Pin positions are an essential aspect of golf tournaments. They can significantly impact how players approach and play vital holes.
In 2022, hole ten was the 4th or 5th hardest until the pin was moved in the third round, making it very accessible and easy on that particular round. In contrast, the 12th played the 10th hardest in the third round, but a tricky pin position meant it rocketed up to the 2nd hardest on the final day.
Understanding pin positions, especially on the final day, will help you spot good trading opportunities.
Weather
Over the past week, the Augusta area has received over two inches of rain, with more in the weekend forecast. Softer fairways will make the course play even longer and give an edge to players with more distance off the tee. These characteristics should suit Rory McIlroy and similar players with good carry distance.
In 2013, strong winds made scoring difficult during the tournament’s first two rounds. The conditions led to some surprising names atop the leaderboard.
So the weather is another crucial factor that can significantly change how the course plays, even throughout a round. So keep an eye on tee times and the weather to pick up on opportunities quickly.
Summary
In conclusion, the US Masters Golf tournament offers many opportunities for Betfair traders to profit.
Profiling the course, pin positions and how it plays are key. Analysing weather conditions can also be a crucial factor in effectively trading golf. With the right strategies and tools, the US Masters can be a profitable and enjoyable sport to watch and trade on.
