Why away goals are so critical
I’ve often looked at the away goal rule in European football competition and pondered this rule and how it changes matches. When a team is level, say 0-0 from the first leg. A goal by the away team is effectively worth two goals. This is because the home team can only win the match now by scoring two goals.
This is inherently unfair in my opinion as, on average, home advantage is worth about 0.40 goals to the home team. If it is worth two goals as detailed in the previous scenario, that distorts things a far bit. Therefore the emphasis shifts dramatically to the away goal and either scoring, or not conceding it. I guess it works, in so far as everybody is aware of it. But in reality, from a statistical perspective, it’s wrong.
That said, I seriously doubt UEFA are going to implement a revision to this process, but it is interesting to note that the importance is much greater than it initially appears. It’s fairly distorting, but also has quite an impact if you don’t get that critical away goal. Some food for thought for tacticians.
Category: Using Bet Angel
