Federer crashes out
With Nadal and Federer losing at the Montreal Masters, Andy Murray now has a great chance to pop up one place in the rankings to world number two.
Federer’s match was quite remarkable being two breaks up and 5-1 up in the final set, but still losing. Scott did a good post on the market on his blog. At 5-1 up in the final set I calculated his odds at 99.7% or basically 1.00, so no particular value at 1.01 to lay but Tsonga was priced at 370 on my spreadsheet. He was available to back at 500’s. Hindsight it a wonderful thing isn’t it! Even taking into account the price that still only represented a 0.3% chance of winning.
Interestingly, holding serve reduced those odds to 41, the break 32, another hold to 3.57. Just shows you that when a Tennis match swings it often does so in spectacular fashion.
Category: Tennis
