Europa league final
Who would put it past Fulham to end the season in glory tonight? Shakhtar Donetsk, Juventus and Hamburg have all been beaten by Fulham en route to the final, with just Atletico Madrid now standing in their way.
The match itself is priced for a low scoring affair with a slight edge to Athletico. The market is pricing in a paltry 2.40 goals, which means the draw should be a likely result for 90mins. I predict if you played this match 100 times the average time of the first goal would be around 34 minutes. There is around an 8% chance of a goal between 0-10 minutes.
We found a total of 134 matches on our database which had very similar characteristics to this match. Over these matches an average of 2.33 goals where scored with a 0.50 advantage to the shorter priced team (Ahletico in this case). 45% ended as home wins, 22% away wins and 32% draws. 61% of the time these matches produced under 2.50 goals, pricing the unders market around 1.64.
Trading the draw and scenarios based on a lack of goals / early goals seems a sensible option tonight.
Category: Using Bet Angel
