A bit of a eureka moment..
For some time I’ve been working on a modelling spreadsheet. On and off I’ve dabbled with it for a few years when time permitted. The aim is to produce a better tool for forecasting value. Predicting the future is always tough and I’ve been searching for a solution to a complicated forecasting problem. I’ve got close, but not enough for a clear ‘victory’.
Sat in bed on Saturday evening with my iPad, I was getting a bit bored of the book I was reading. So I just randomly searched, again, for a solution to my problem. After bouncing from one site to another I suddenly found an article. For some reason, after reading the article, the solution just suddenly popped into my head and I could see it with crystal clarity. I jumped out of bed grabbed a notebook and jotted down some thoughts.
On Sunday morning I got up and immediately put my thoughts to work on a spreadsheet. Soon after out popped the final solution, right in front of my eyes. It was obvious when I looked at it, but for some reason the solution has escaped me for ages. It was a huge moment having struggled for years to nail it. It’s beyond the scope of the blog to explain what I found in simple terms, but essentially I have been searching for some key fundemantal factors on which to base the start of the forcast. Now I’ve done that, I need to understand it a bit more.
It may make the basis of a future product, if it proves useful. But that will be a least a year away. The moral of this story, never give up searching for a solution. Whatever you are searching for.
An archimedes moment
Category: General, Trading strategies
