Death of a strategy
If you read the ‘birth of a strategy‘ one thing you can see how is long it takes for a new idea to fade, but why?
Well, people were in this market before I was, so my arrival no doubt had an impact on them. It must have or else I couldn’t have made any money. So was their response to sit there and let it happen? No, they would have tweaked their strategy to take account of the new kid on the block. So, eventually, my strategy faded from it’s previous highs.
But to describe it as ‘dead’ is wrong. As my fellow market participants did when I arrived, I have simply tweaked a few parameters and am now continuing on a slightly different path but upwards again. It’s beautiful market efficiency in action! For me to continue I need to find a better way. When I find that better way, existing participants will have to respond to find a better way. If they do, it will be my turn and so on. It’s the same in any market and always will be. It’s one big game of cat and mouse!
I have seen quite a few people come and go in time on Betfair. Finding a strategy that has a pay off is one thing, maintaining it completely another. The things I teach people on my course today, are very different from even a couple of years ago. While the market can exhibit similar traits, the participants don’t and that is just part and parcel of the market. You have to adapt to continue to hold your position in response to other moves, you run to stand still. Some strategies that worked really well a few years ago just don’t work anymore or in different manners. Likewise, strategies that didn’t exist a while ago have come into full view now the markets have matured.
One constant that has always been there though is profit. When I first started doing this I wasn’t sure if I was kidding myself. But I slowly learnt that potential profit exists in every market, every day. Finding it at the lowest risk is where the skill and psychology comes into play. I’ve mentioned on other posts that sometimes just sitting and waiting for a clear opportunity is often the best tactic. If you can see on opportunity, one probably doesn’t exist.
I am always restless to understand more, so I am sure that I will witness many more births and deaths. The quest continues!
A game of cat and mouse
Category: General, Trading strategies
