England v South Africa opportunities
Peter De Villiers is under increasing pressure at the helm of the South Africa rugby union team and will hope he can make amends for a poor year with victory against England this weekend.
Much has been made of the Springboks’ six game winning streak against the Red Rose, but results this season suggest that there is good value in backing the hosts early. In their nine matches since the start of the tri-nations in July, South Africa have tasted defeat six times. They look a shadow of the side that lifted the Webb-Ellis trophy in 2007.
Their average margin of defeat in these six matches is over ten points, while in the three they have won since, only their victory over Australia at the intimidating Loftus Versfeld Stadium was by more than four points.
The South Africans were trailing at halftime in both of their previous matches against Scotland and Wales, so we might not see their odds for the match at Twickenham contract any shorter than they are currently at any point. England’s price on the handicap markets could well shorten quickly if they gain an early dominance in the match, as they did against Australia. However, the ‘Boks came back strongly in the second half to beat the Welsh and England were guilty of allowing late tries against both Australia and Samoa, so be prepared to back South Africa at the break and lay off later if they can cross the line.
Of their nine last games all but South Africa’s most recent topped 40.5 points, but perhaps this is unsurprising given habits of Southern Hemisphere referees. The conditions tomorrow will be against a high-scoring outcome, but a couple of early tries could send the under 40.5pts price out. Don’t bank on it though. England took 24 minutes to cross the whitewash against Australia and 47 minutes before a five-pointer against the Samoans. South African fans were made to wait until the 70th and 50th minutes against Scotland and Wales.
Category: Rugby
