Next NUFC manager
Newcastle United FC’s sacking of Chris Hughton – apart from being one of the most stupid backroom decisions in the ludicrous world of Premier League football – opened us up to a few smart trades over the last couple of days.
The favourite usually chops and changes based on nothing more than speculation and is directly affected by what the potential new managers say in the media. Martin O’Neill was installed as the immediate favourite, then Alan Pardew quickly moved to the head of the market when he expressed an interest.
It seemed fairly straight forward – lay off the favourites at the shortest odds and back them when they get replaced with a new favourite, when potential new fave becomes the latest to talk about wanting the job to the news cameras of the world. Pardew now looks likeliest for the job at 2.34, but that wasn’t the case when Martin Jol suddenly quit Ajax. The Dutchman moved to the top of the market – which was the cue to lay him. He’s now slipped back down again (to 4.3).
There are a number of markets that behave in this way, depending on media hype and exposure. X Factor to an extent works like this and the BBC’s Sports Personality of the Year, the result of which will be announced in a matter of days, exhibits similar characteristics. When there is more media interest in a particular candidate, there is naturally more interested in them as a betting proposition. If it’s not warranted, the market will soon readjust.
Category: Alternative markets, Football trading strategies
