Morgan inclusion offers opportunity

11/03/2011 | By More

England’s World Cup bid suffered another setback with the news of Stuart Broad’s injury that has ruled him out for the remainder of the tournament. The loss of Broad was even more of a blow as Kevin Pietersen has already returned home for surgery. Paceman Chris Tremlett has been called in at short notice to help out with the bowling duties.

Eoin Morgan will step in to fill KP’s boots and is likely to have his first opportunity to impress against Bangladesh. This may just be a blessing in disguise given the Irishman’s ODI record. England have played 38 matches with the Irishman in the starting XI and they have won 20 of those matches. Without the batsmen in the side, England have played seven matches and won only three of those.

The winning percentage with Morgan playing since his debut is 52.63%, while it drops to 42.86% when he’s not picked. Morgan has averaged 40 runs in his ODI career since his debut and he has scored three centuries.

There’s further support that England may actually benefit from Pietersen’s injury as England’s win percentage is actually lower when he starts. England have played 112 ODI’s with KP in the side and have won 49 and lost 51.

Without the big-hitting batsman, England have played 39 matches – winning 18 and losing 21. The winning percentage since KP’s debut is 46.15% when England haven’t been able to call upon him and it’s 43.75% when he has started.

Many punters will feel that without KP in the side England are set to score fewer, but the analysis reveals that isn’t necessarily the case. This offers an opportunity for astute traders to take advantage of England’s lower total runs price and look to make a larger profit with Morgan’s positive effect.