Perspective
A better day again at Cheltenham so I will upgrade myself to a 9/10 for yesterday’s performance. I continued my strategy of trading on both exchanges this week. I now have a headache, it’s a bit intense!
I’m looking for a 10/10 tomorrow, but I think that’s a bit of an ask; but you never know!
It’s funny, while results can look impressive year on year, you often forget how you managed to dig a result out. This year is no different and while I am probably heading for a similar total as last year (which is a surprise) it’s in a completely different way. The ability to adapt to changing conditions should never be underestimated.
One of the current problems on Betfair is that it isn’t growing. This year we are currently on just over 100% of last years volume at Cheltenham, ditto for 2009. When a market isn’t growing this creates intense competition for what scraps are left. One of the side effects of this scrap is that certain strategies are becoming viable as a result. For example backers / people dutching can now back at very close to true value now on an exchange and probably stand a pretty fair chance of long term success given even a small edge, ask for a few prices and it is very likely. This is remarkable given the risk that others take in offering these prices. But it seems a lot of the modern activities which create these prices, have been fueled by things that were effective a few years ago but which only now are popular. It’s an accident. There are a few unknowns in there as well, a few mysteries yet to be solved about quite how the market manifests itself this way.
You also need some perspective on Cheltenham. Lots of people argue that there is more genuine money in the market and this makes it more favourable. Well, yes and no. The problem is a lot of that money arrives long before some people arrive on the scene. On average this week 71% of volume at post time was already matched at the five minute marker. I looked at the first page of data from this month and found a low quality race at Folkstone that generated more in liquidity in the last five minutes than four out of the six races at Cheltenham yesterday. I can repeat this example quite easily. If you stuff up a market with lots of cash but have the same matching rate as some ‘normal’ markets, have a think about what happens and the dangers and opportunties that creates?
Anyhow, there is some perspective for you and a deeper look at these markets. It’s the Gold Cup today, so the week hits it peak and this year it’s a very competitive affair, can’t wait!
"I'd trade on Betdaq if the liquidity was better"
Category: Horse Racing
