Waves
For some time I’ve noticed curious elements within betting markets. I love analysing and studying what happens in the market, and it’s all to find out that critical question, why?
Getting a deeper understanding is useful because it allows you to build a firm framework around your decisions. I’ve often seen people stumble on something that works and then come up with things to justify that. Eventually they will fail a little while later and slip out of existence, why? Finding success can gives you false belief that you ‘have it sussed’ when in fact just finding something that works could just be a fluke. Failing to examine the “why” question is a key error for a lot of people in any market. I saw this a lot in financial markets. Sometimes people think they know why but they are only just scratching the real reason.
I’m interested in why things fail, or specifically exactly why does something really work. Each year I modify my strategy in a constant game of cat and mouse as a result of my research. It could be just to improve what I have, or to respond to a change in the market. When I do that, no doubt somebody else responds to that change and so the game continues. If I stayed still I would also get pushed out of existance.
For some time I’ve been aware of a general ‘wave’ in the market that determines how favourable it is for certain strategies. The market ebbs and flows and when the wave is peaking, that is the time of greatest opportunity. I never really, truly, understood why until recently. With a clear head after my holiday, I set about solving something unrelated and too my surprise I realised that it mapped very well on top of the wave. Within a few hours I had finally worked out what generates this phenomenon. The unfortunate thing is I can’t influence it but at least I understand another new thing about the market.
Category: General, Trading strategies
