Nothing’s impossible
That has to be the message that Harry Redknapp will send to his team this evening. But just what chance does he have?
When you can lay Real Madrid at 1.02 to qualify, so the market thinks Harry has less than a 2% chance. But memories are still fresh for me with that remarkable run Middlesbrough had in the UEFA cup a few years ago.
Spurs are priced at 3.35 for a win, the match is only priced for just under three goals. This is at the top end for this type of match, but given the need for goals I think this is a little light. Real Madrid can afford to concede and not worry and one away goal would mean a mammoth task for Spurs. You get the feeling Mr Redknapp will tell his team to go for it and sod the consequences. I’m going to lean on goals being scored.
I went back through my database and found 94 recent matches where the home team was priced at 3.35, a 30% chance of a win. 36% of those 94 matches ended up as a win. Only once did the home team score four goals or more and that wasn’t without reply so the prospects for Spurs do look a little bleak. However there were a few 3-0 results in there which would make the match a cracker. Man City won 3-0 at the same odds against Arsenal in 2008 and, more recently, Bristol City defeated Cardiff by the same margin in January. So not totally out of the question, especially given the incentive to win.
My focus will be on looking for goals. Stats tell me that if the game is likely to deliver more than three goals it would be ideal for that first goal to arrive before 30 minutes. 22 minutes or lower will definitely put four within sight. Therefore Spurs need to get at least three shots on target in the first 20 minutes to really be convincing candidates for a shock. Within the first 30 you will know whether things are going to plan or not.
Let’s hope for a interesting and exciting game!
Category: Football trading strategies
