Champions League
Everybody else will be posting about it so I thought I would add my two penneth worth.
An intriguing clash, for once I think I will watch this than trade it.
A neutral venue but Man Utd will practically be at home, so you would have to favour Barca but discount some of the neutrality. I think this is the weakest Man Utd team for a while. Other teams really should have put in a stronger challenge for the premier league this season, but we all know the stories behind that.
These sort of matches are difficult to price, so I would suggest it’s the sort of match where you could find some value once a pattern develops in the match. It’s so delicately balanced and both teams have a huge incentive to win tactics will play an important role.
The market is saying 2.40 goals, slightly above normal for this type of match, with a 0.40 advantage to Barcelona. This is effectively saying this is a very even match but Barcelona are at ‘at home’, they have the equivalent of home advantage. I think it’s more uneven than that, but a lot will depending on whether there is an early goal. That will really set the agenda. I’ve had a delve through my database for similar matches, but they are all a bit inconclusive to be honest.
I would recommend seeing how the opening exchanges are playing out and getting involved from there. It’s difficult to make any firm judgements before the off, but I’m leaning on the side of Barcelona. I am hoping for an entertaining match!
Category: Football trading strategies
