Champions league ratings
An interesting bunch of matches tonight and I reckon they will throw up, on average, around 21/22 goals as a group. Don’t forget to fire up Soccer Mystic for a good look at these matches.
I’d rank most to least goals as: –
Barcelona vs. AC Milan
Porto vs. Shakhtar
Genk vs. Valencia
Chelsea vs. Leverkusen
Dortmund vs. Arsenal
Plzen vs. BATE Borisov
APOEL vs. Zenit St Petersburg
Olympiakos vs. Marseille
I’m intrigued by the Barcelona and Dortmund match. Are Barca really value at 1.28, or you could say are AC Milan really as poor as 6’s? Can Arsenal really produce something at Dortmund given the way they have played so far this season?
Unfortunately I am out at a meeting this evening and will have to skip tonight, which is a shame, but I will back behind my desk tomorrow.
For the Barca match the market is forecasting 3.30 goals. When I looked at my database of matches, the last 211 matches that matched the profile of this match produced 3.20 goals on average. 159 home teams won, producing ‘historical’ odds of 1.33 hinting at some slight lay value.
Here are the away wins that occured at these odds: –
Away – 2007 – AC Milan vs Empoli – Result – 0-1
Away – 2007 – Galatasaray vs Helsingborgs – Result – 2-3
Away – 2007 – Ajax vs Breda – Result – 1-3
Away – 2008 – Celtic vs Aberdeen – Result – 0-1
Away – 2008 – W Bremen vs Duisburg – Result – 1-2
Away – 2008 – Porto vs Leixoes – Result – 2-3
Away – 2009 – B Munich vs FC Koln – Result – 1-2
Away – 2009 – Barcelona vs Espanyol – Result – 1-2
Away – 2009 – Az Alkmaar vs Vitesse – Result – 1-2
Away – 2009 – AC Milan vs FC Zurich – Result – 0-1
Away – 2009 – Fenerbahce vs Kasimpasa – Result – 1-3
Away – 2009 – Standard vs Roeselare – Result – 0-1
Away – 2010 – Man Utd vs Leeds – Result – 0-1
Away – 2010 – Anderlecht vs Sint Truiden – Result – 1-2
Away – 2010 – Galatasaray vs Antalyaspor – Result – 1-2
Away – 2010 – Tottenham vs Wigan – Result – 0-1
Good luck whatever you are up to tonight. I’ll have a spreadsheet running with some likely payoff strategies in absence of my presence tonight. I’ll check in on the VPS at half time.
Category: Football trading strategies
