FA Cup Fifth round
Rather predictably we reach the fifth round of the FA Cup today with 99% of the market made up from Premiership teams. In round three that figure was 94.7% and round four 96.10%. What’s the betting we reach the final with 100%?
The fifth round is more likely to make that happen as there is only one clash this weekend where two premiership teams meet up. I think this looks the most interesting, Sunderland vs Arsenal, as it has the potential to throw up favourable trading circumstances. The others don’t look so great, but Millwall vs Bolton also looks interesting.
It is possible to spot in advance matches that are likely to throw of certain characteristics. Earlier this week I used £10 stakes on the Europa league matches, I did this as preparation for my course next week. Following a simple strategy that relies on cues from the underlying activity in the matches I turned £30 on this £10 exposure.
You can see I traded several matches at once and this is usually a good idea as it will reduce the risk that the one thing you pick is a stinker. When that happens it tends to force the invisible hand of psychology against you. It’s best to avoid that! For this example though I traded all of them to demonstrate that as long as you follow a clear path it’s actually quite difficult not to break even, even when you are not selective. Football is great for this as you load all the matches up in Guardian and manage several things all at once. Give it a try.
Category: Football trading strategies
