2012 US Masters
I’ve been busy tracking the Golf markets since 2004 and the first major of the year is good place to start the Golf trading season proper.
The thing I like about Masters is its on more or less the same course each year, save amendments and pin positions, with the same sort of characteristics and foibles. There is lots of data as to how each hole plays and where the tough and easy parts of the course are. So that makes it easier to understand when you should take a profit on a player and when to let one run. A player in the clubhouse can’t lose any shots, but one coming up to the tough part of the course can. I’m going to post up some more detail on the forum thread.
I shall forever go down in the trading hall of fame for saying live on BBC radio last year that you should definitely lay McIlroy at when in the lead before the start on Saturday. Things like this are are easy to say in hindsight, but not so easy when said against the prevailing wisdom, the wishes of the public will, trading communities and live on Radio. It was an easy decision for me though. When asked again at the US Open I suggested not laying him that time around. Sometimes when you are looking for a trading position, just get yourself in the head of the player.
My first trade at the masters is to lay the favourite in the build up, I’ll be exiting that position this morning. From that point on I’ll start picking on players I think will get in contention at some point in the first couple of days. The front of the field is just looking to be in contention over the weekend, so it’s rare to get big movers early on there. The place to look is the middle and back of the field, as these players will be trying hard to reach the weekend. They have to play themselves into contention and that often throws up a few surprises. You need to back a few of them to catch the big mover as some will overdo the risk raking and flunk it. But out of the group the few you pick that do really well will cover any duff positions. Have a nose around the other golf threads on the blog to see this in action. Trade out when these players reach the harder parts of the course.
This year the Masters seems to be dominated by a potential battle between Woods and McIlroy. If that develops into reality and the players respond, it could overshadow the field. I would tend to bet against this as just one good or bad shot can radically change a round at Augusta.
Looking forward to seeing the driving range packed this weekend!
Category: Golf
