Vital stats for the Manchester derby
Top Level
Man City are currently ranked 1st for their league form at home this season. They have won 94% of home games this season, drew 6% and lost no games. They are currently unbeaten at home. Man Utd are currently ranked 2nd for their league form away this season. They have won 78% of away games, drew 11% and lost 11% of games.
Number of goals scored
Man City have scored an average of 3.00 goals per home game and have failed to score on 4% of occasions. They have score in every home match this season. Man Utd have scored an average of 2.12 goals per away game and have failed to score on 6% of occasions. Man City have conceded an average of 0.59 goals per game at home and have kept a clean sheet on 59% of occasions. When playing away Man Utd have conceded an average of 0.76 goals per game and have kept a clean sheet on 28% of occasions.
On average Man City score a total of +2.41 more goals than their opponents at home and each match has contained an average of 3.59 goals. On average Man Utd score a total of +1.35 more goals than their opponents when playing away and each match has contained an average of 2.88 goals.
Over / Unders
Man City – When playing at home Under 2.5 goals has occurred 18% of the time. Over 2.5 goals has occurred 82% of the time.
Man Utd – When playing away, Under 2.5 goals has occurred 47% of the time. Over 2.5 goals has occurred 53% of the time.
What the market is saying
The market is currently forecasting 3.00 goals in this match with a slight edge to Man City of 0.34 goals. The market is telling us these are evenly matched teams with a bias to the home team, no surprise there! But it is also saying there will be an above average number of goals. Traditonally local derbies are tight affairs and low scoring matches so draws are a fairly common occurrence.
When we dug through our archives, a large number of similar matches game in consistently under 3 goals which suggest the price on the draw should be a bit shorter. There appears to be a bias in the market based on the prior high scoring rates of both teams. You would think they would cancel each other out to some extent.
However, a lot depends on when that critical first goal is scored. Man Utd will not want to lose this match and Man City have to win. An early goal will give significant incentive for further goals. You sense that United will be trying not to conceded as a first priority and to frustrate City at the start of the match.
Good luck if you are active on this match tonight.
The Derby
Category: Football trading strategies
