Italy vs Italy
I looked long and hard at this evening’s match in Kiev and I, like the market, am finding it difficult to split the result.
I think the main reason for this is that I think both sides will cancel each other out. We have become used to Italian football being based around defense counter attacking play. Now England seems to have adopted this style as well. That seems to position the match for a low scoring nail-biter. Cue, a dramatic 3-2 victory!
The market seems to agree with it pricing in just over two goals with little supremacy to either side. When the number of goals forecast by the market is close to two, the draw becomes much more favoured. So the possibility of extra time and penalties is much higher this evening. Curiously we looked specifically at Internationals with a similar make up and the one fixture that really stood out on the list was Germany vs England in the 2010 World cup. Hmmm.
We also looked at our historical database of matches and found 46 matches that looked very similar. The market is discounting a 33.8% chance of a England win, a 33.8% chance of a Italy win and a 32.8% chance of a draw. Our historical data shows that a match like this has produced, in the past, a 34.8% chance of a home (England) win, a 32.6% chance of a away (Italian) win and a 32.6% chance of a draw.
It’s going to be a tense evening.
Category: Football trading strategies
