Spain vs Italy
An interesting set up for the final. I’ve had a really busy week, again, so I’ll be taking it easy and will trade pre-off, but sit down and watch the match.
The match is priced for just over two goals with an extra 0.40 going to Spain. It’s basically saying you have two even teams but Spain are effectively at ‘home’.
I know I often post this sort of comments, but I’m not sure if people pay much attention to them. But I am generally only slightly out over reasonable time periods. There is always a large amount of variability in football, but if you are seeking value of one sort or another, then that plays out over time and getting accurate over time is what really matters.
So far I have forecast 56% of matches to end up under 2.5 goals and in fact, so far, 56.7% have ended up under. I have forecast a total of 71 goals and we have had 73. In football things revert to mean very quickly. As you can see in this case, over the course of the tournament. The tournament itself has seen matched bet volume of £581m on the match odds market. On average, each match odds market has matched roughly £20m. Roughly 56% is matched inplay. The lowest matched bet amount was, curiously, the opening match at £12.5m. The biggest reached £35m when Germany won 4-2 against Greece.
Looking forward to watching the final this evening, lets hope one of the teams goes out to win it rather than not to lose. Everybody is suddenly tipping Ballotelli to do something, so that’s going to be good to oppose I suggest!
Category: Football trading strategies
