Mass aggregation
A rather opaque title for a football post.
This evening we have the Europa league football and I like this stage of the tournament because, as I mentioned in my other post recently, the mass of markets means I can make a hash of things and most likely still end in profit. Actually I didn’t say that, I said that you could improve your expectation of a profit by spreading your risk. But I hope you see what I mean!
If you search the blog for ‘Europa league ratings’ you should find a bundle of comments on prior Europe league rounds. At this stage of the tournament you get two bites at the cherry. One round of early matches then some later matches, but you also get lots of matches. This allows you to aggregate risk significantly.
In my previous ratings posts you can often see me forecast the number of goals. This is important as this allows me to ‘share out’ the goals across matches and use that to form an idea of what I am going to do. In isolation I can’t predict exactly what will happen in a match, I can only predict what will happen ‘on average’. This is why tipping is such a minefield, you can’t explain your rationale only give a tip. Get it right and you are a god, get it wrong and you are a fool. But it reality, whatever happens, you could still end up ahead over very long time periods and that is my ultimate aim when trading or betting.
When you get lots of matches all at once you can aggregate that ‘on average’ comment much quicker. As long as you a roughly get it right, it should balance out in double quick time. So tonight I will be looking to allocate 67 goals across all these Europa League matches. In there will be some shocks, some low scoring and high scoring matches. But over the course of the season I will be more or less correct, tonight may be above or below that total, but it shouldn’t vary that much and that’s is the benefit of aggregating loads of matches into one strategy.
Category: Football trading strategies, Trading strategies
