Next US president is……
US Presidential markets are surprisingly good trading fodder.
OK, I know we have some European football on this evening and the Melbourne cup just passed, but once in four years means I will devote this post today to draw your attention to this market.
The last market in 2008 drew total traded volume of £13m. This was actually down on the previous election in 2004 where a lot of uncertainty created a wild swing in the market. At one point it seemed certain that John Kerry would be the next president before some key states fell to Bush and the market did an abrupt about turn and elected Dubya for a second term. There is a propensity for presidents to be elected for a second term and that appears to be well priced into the market.
So the hope is that some of the key states are margin or vote for Romney and create some uncertainty in the market. The political commentators seem to be calling a close race but the market seems to differ on it’s interpretation. Should be an interesting night.
Category: Alternative markets
