Not bad for a winter Tuesday
First snow of the winter arrived here this morning and I had to dodge in and out of various potential mishaps on school run this morning.
Trading winter racing markets
Winter in the racing markets can be a bit bleak. A chunk of the races can be fairly poor affairs and that’s if the racing goes ahead at all! My overall potential drops quite significantly at this time of year on the racing, I typically see a decline in the 30-50% region against peak periods in the Summer. So I tend to use the shorter days to examine or trade new markets and also to get really stuck into some new research. On the horses I’m looking at data I collected in the Summer at the moment, by next Summer I may be able to put it to use. In the winter good days can be hard to come by, so don’t get frustrated if you can’t pick up one. It’s just the way the market works at this time of year. There are still some highlights on the card, but it does get a little tougher.
A swingy day
Yesterday I posted up a cryptic message on Twitter than I expected a ‘swingy’ day. Basically I was saying that the markets were quite likely to be pretty volatile. This works in both directions, volatility can be a mare if you are on the wrong side of it, but great if you are on the right side of it.
Part of the trick in volatile markets is to spot quickly when you have got into a poor position and then to get out quickly. If you catch it right, ride it up to maximise your potential profit. It’s the old adage of letting your profits run and cutting your losses.
Where people go wrong in volatile markets is to guess a direction, some guesswork is needed BTW, but then fail to accept they got it wrong. With experience you learn not to love a position, because it will never love you back. You make a decision, you look for your entry point then you go for it. Moments later you will know if you were right on not. If it’s a not, you dump your position and start again. You treat your sixth trade exactly the same as the first, even if the previous five didn’t work out. You just keep on seeking the right entry. The exit is simple.
It can be a little frustrating if you get it wrong but over time you will get better and better, as long as you critically review yourself. After many years in the market I get it right more often than I get it wrong and some days are set up with the potential to get some good upside. Yesterday was one of those days, today is likely to be a little harder. But that’s OK as another will be along soon.
Category: Horse Racing
