Trading the last set of group matches
A couple of nice reminders in the last two days on curious scenarios that can occur in the dead rubber matches.
First we had Arsenal last night. Already through to the next stage of the champions league and not much to play for in the last match. As consequence people started discounting the fact that Arsenal would not win and it pulled in the price of Olympiakos quite dramatically before the off. When the team news came out and the Arsenal team looked uncompetitive then the price continued to be backed in.
We know have this really curious scenario developing in group E. Chelsea need to beat Nordsjaelland and hope Shakhtar Donetsk defeat Juventus. Any other outcome will mean Chelsea become the first Champions League winners to fail to reach the knockout stage the following season.
If Shakhtar and Juventus draw then they are almost certainly through, so the market is heavily pricing in, pretty much as fact, that a draw will occur. If they do play out a bore draw, or allow a dodgy goal in then it would look really suspicious, but it’s not as though this is the first time it would have occured.
This is going to be a really interesting evening!
Category: Football trading strategies
