Is Tennis trading a load of old balls?
Ever the researcher, I have been browsing some books and documents recently. I stumbled across an interesting document that relates to whether new or old balls are an advantage in a Tennis match, it gave me some food for thought. It relates mainly to Wimbledon but it’s got me thinking about other surface types also and whether the same thing would be applicable there or whether this is an anomaly.
So for my first serve, stop reading for a second and have a think about how you think new balls could affect the ability of a serving winning a point?
Now read the conclusions of this research: –
Is serving with new balls an advantage?
Although serving with new balls appears to provide no advantage in terms of the number of points won, new balls may well affect the way points are won. For example,
the probability of ‘1st service in’ seems to increase when the balls get older, and the probability of a double fault seems to decrease, which is, of course, partly due to the increasing trend in the probability of ‘1st service in’. The reason for this, perhaps, is that older balls are softer and fluffier (hence more grip) than newer balls. The service is, therefore, easier to control, resulting in a higher percentage of ‘1st service in’ and less double faults.
One might argue that this positive effect on the probability of winning a point on the first service is counteracted by a benefit for the receiver when balls get older and thus softer and
fluffier. The first service would be slower and hence easier to return. We find no evidence for this, as age has no effect on the probability of winning a point if the 1st service is in. Therefore, in total, players win more points on their first service as balls become older.
The second service is different. The men miss less second services when using old balls, which is in line with the decreasing double fault statistics in. However, if the second service is in, they win less points, but not significantly so. On balance, the quality of the second service, measured by the probability of winning a point on the second service, is independent of the age of the balls. For the women the quality of the second service does depend on the age of the balls. The second service is easier to return with older balls, which makes the quality of the second service depend negatively on the age of the balls.
If you want to get into the detail, have a read of the academic document: –
https://biomech.byu.edu/Portals/84/Documents/tennisballs.pdf
Category: Tennis, Trading strategies
