Some statistics on the Aussie Open Tennis
I’ve started digging my way through my data and notes, so here is some data. Only mens at the moment. I’ve made my comments strategy neutral, so you will have to work out from it what it from you wish!
The average number of games per set was 9.81 which is above the long term average, this was a more competitive tournament than usual. You have to go back to the 2000 tournament for a higher number.
The average number of matches that were level at some point was pretty high at close on 45% of all matches. Compare this to 2011 where less than 30% achieved this feat. This pretty much backs up the first stat. Three of the four quarter finals reached this scenario as well, along with one of the semis and of course, the final.
75% of matches where the favourite lost the first set on a tie break ended up with the favourite going on to win the match, but if they just lost the first set without a tie break then they only won 63% of the time. But this is actually quite an interesting stat as that percentage is higher than normal. When a favourite won the tie break in the first set, they went on to win 83% of the time vs 89.5% if they just won the first in a without needing the tie break.
More stats to follow as I plough through the data. When we come up to the next major tournament I’ll do some comparisons for you. It pays to trade different surfaces in different ways, or at worst adjust your risk profile because of the difference in surface type.
Category: Tennis
Regarding the stats above :
1) High number of games per set in mens = scalp the serve
2) 45% of matches were level at some point = lay low priced favourites and trade out tactically
3) 75% of favourites losing 1st set tie break win = back the favourite after they lose the 1st set ( bit obvious that one i know ! )
Am i close ?
Many strategies to put into play, but usually the trick is to focus on one and execute well. You can’t avoid losses so you have to ensure your potential payoff is adequate on the upside.
You could execute (2) but backing the outsider, but it depends on how you want to manage your risk. You will make everso slightly more by backing high and laying low if you are greening than the other way around.
I like that and the last one the best.
Thanks for the tip regarding backing high and laying low. I always lay low and back high in tennis matches. I think i do this because it seems easier to me to manage the volatility of the price movement this way.
Tennis trader is excellent for risk management but in my experience its predictive abilities are only really accurate on matches that have high matched values(£3m-£4m+) but its particularly valuable for identifying value opportunities and also for pinpointing the exit point if it goes wrong.
Anyway, thanks for the reply.