FA Cup fifth round
So the FA Cup trundles on.
No real surprises so far in terms of how the tournament is playing out. I’ve pointed out in previous blog posts that from a tournament trading perspective it’s dominated by the top teams. So far this year premiership teams have dominated the book% in all rounds and that doesn’t look like it’s going to change.
Volumes on FA Cup matches are lower than higher profile so I’m starting to find it a bit annoying! I can’t really get tucked into the football today, but I will have a play. Not the sort of day to talk much about the footy TBH.
The best trade so far at the front of the book is Man Utd. They have shortened from 7.00 to 3.65 as at this morning. That would have yielded £91.78 to a £100 trading stake. Betting to level stakes on all premiership teams doesn’t work in the FA CUP because many will be eliminated, often by each other, along the way. So betting to level stakes is a bit of a misnomer in tournament betting, use dutching to create proportional staking. This will exploit the underlying shift in probabilities rather than give you an increased liability with a fixed return. You could have dutched the majority of the premiership and still been in profit at this stage of the tournament.
Probably the most interesting scenario is the Luton vs Millwall match. One of these teams will progress and could get a lucky draw in the next round. So there may be an opportunity there, but that will be down to the luck of the draw!
Good luck whatever you are doing today!
Category: Football trading strategies, Trading strategies
