Time to make a mess of the garden – The US Masters
We are final at the first major of the year. I’m already active in the Masters market trying to establish a position before the first player tees off.
I like the masters because over the years I have collected a ton of stats on the course. This gives me a good guide as to when to trade out of a position. You can do this on most courses, but because the Masters is at the same course every year it is much more predictable. I’ve got detailed data from this tournament, from a trading perspective, since 2004 and detailed course information over the last 25 years.
The most likely hole to drop a shot on is the 11th but variance to par, one of my main metrics, means that a dropped shot is quite likely to occur in bunches. The most expensive three holes over the course are holes 10-12 where on average 3/4’s of a shot are lost. Players tend to pick up shots on the par fives only. Players are most likely to Eagle the 13th but two holes later is another chance. Golf itself isn’t very predictable and that is where the beauty of trading it lies, excuse the pun. The last 17 majors have had 16 different winners! But while the outcome is uncertain, Four day tournaments do have predictable patterns, in terms of the way contenders or outsiders play.
The problem we face at this years Masters is that the weather is good, that will make for less mistakes and favour players who are used to good weather. No European winner this year then! But also we have Tiger Woods in good form and at a short price. That will mean the vast majority of the focus will be on him. If he doesn’t make any mistakes there probably wont be much price movement elsewhere, just a general shuffling in the rest of the book. So ideally we need Tiger to mess up. By hole seven we will have a good idea if he is gunning for another major or not I reckon.
McIlory has Caroline Wozniakci as his caddy in the Par 3 contest. She is hanging around for the main tournament and so not sure if that will be a help or a hindrance. Considering both their form , I’m going to look for the latter.
Time to get the golf clubs out and make a mess of the garden!
Category: Golf
