End of season Italian football – I predict a draw
As I have pointed out in prior years at the same time, end of season Italian football can throw up some strange situations and odds. Here are the ‘top’ eight matches with the lowest price for the draw today.
Spezia Vs. Lanciano – Draw odds – 2.08
Cesena Vs. Juve Stabia – Draw odds – 2.1
Chievo Vs. Cagliari – Draw odds – 2.3
Cittadella Vs. Reggina – Draw odds – 3.1
Crotone Vs. Modena – Draw odds – 3.3
Vicenza Vs. Empoli – Draw odds – 3.45
Norwich Vs. Aston Villa – Draw odds – 3.45
Swindon Vs. Brentford – Draw odds – 3.45
I went back through my database which covers 25,000 matches over recent years to examine if there really was a bias in these matches for a draw. I scanned for matches that were 2.30 or lower on the draw. This is because this is an exceptionally low price for the draw. The scan threw up 30 matches with sufficient data and nearly all of them were clubs from the Italian leagues! I averaged out the odds offered on these matches and compared them to the to the actual results and it threw up the following results.
The draw more or less occurred with a frequency that the market had discounted, suggesting that both teams did indeed play for a draw. The market offered average odds which added up to a 56% chance of occurring and the actual results came in at 57%. The curious divergence however came from the record of the home teams. The markets discounted a 28% chance of a home win, but that result only occurred 17% of the time.
Therefore this would seem to indicate that rather than backing or laying the draw, which more or less averages out over time. You should lay the home team. This shifts your potential to profit to a draw or away win and historically the home teams have underperformed in these situations. If you look at the matches in detail you can see that it’s the away team that generally has more to lose by losing in these matches and that is also being discounted in these results.
Italian football has always been a bit suspect towards the end of the season and the massive match fixing scandal not so long ago wasn’t a surprise. But it’s also no surprise that we find ourselves at the end of the season and looking at some remarkably low prices for the draw again. At least you know know what to do about it this year!
Category: Football trading strategies
