My season long shot
May day is pay day for me, on a number of football markets. Season long bets mature and pay out months of hard work.
Relegation and promotion markets are something I play in each year and they can be quite fertile territory, if you have the patience.
Where to look
The new manager effect is a well understood phenomena in football. The old manager is given the boot and existing players suddenly have somebody new to impress. It’s a little deeper than that, but it generally is a good rule of thumb. I’m an avid follower of the managerial merry go round as it presents many opportunities. I tend to trade next manager markets, as well as relegation markets, not so much promotion or winners.
The opportunity
There were two things that drew me to this particularly opportunity. Keeping an eye on the news feed from football clubs can give you some key information leading up to a new season. I focus on owners, managers and player transfers. I did some excellent work many years ago about forecasting final league position and came up with some surprising results, so research in this area is my initial guide.
I’ll often zoom in on clubs where there has been a change of ownership and one club that caught my eye last year was Bournemouth FC. You can never be sure if a new owner is going to splash the cash, but the breath of fresh air it brings can be welcome as much as any currency. Hard cash will improve the situation how ever as it is possible to ‘buy’ promotion. Have a look at Swindon’s recent history, ex chairman, Andrew Black of Betfair fame.
The outcome
So, I was quite optimistic that Bournemouth would have a good season. I kept tabs on them at the start of the season to see any signs. 11 matches into the season and they had only registered one win, 8 points and were 21st in the division. Not exactly what I had expected, but then the trigger point for a trade came into play. Out went the old manager and in came the new. I knew this was an opportunity to lay them for relegation, for scraps it has to be said, but having read so much about them I also had a cheeky side bet on their promotion.
The appointment of Eddie Howe turned out to be a key turning point as expected, but even better than I expected. They won their first match against Leyton Orient and then went on to lose only 1 out of the next 21 matches which catapulted then to 1st in the table. Then they hit a bad run. Five straight losses sent them back to 7th in the table, but they responded well and 8 straight wins left them only needing to match Doncaster rovers results to go up as winners. So I was left on the last day of the season with a decent sum on Bournemouth. I’d traded out so I couldn’t lose, but it was more a question of what would I win?
For most of the match it looking like Bournemouth would pull it off, but then heartbreak. Doncaster scored in the 96 minute and Bournemouth still go up, but not as Champions.
All my final positions are paying out now for this season, then I can have a short break. But during the off season I’ll be keeping an eye on the news-wires for next seasons potential.
Category: Football trading strategies
