Ascot so far
Sorry I didn’t provide an update yesterday, it’s just a very, very busy week!
The top line
On the top line turnover is down for Betfair and up for Betdaq. Betdaq numbers are harder to decipher than Betfair but you can see a persistent lift in turnover, however you view or cut the numbers.
On Betfair on the first three days produced £36.9m in matched bets vs £43.7m last year – £6.8m lower than last year. The current trend, turnover on big meetings continuing to slide year or year, looks set to continue.
The bottom line
I’m doing OK, nothing spectacular, but just fine. I think I’m more or less in line with expectations. My best race so far was just short of £400 and my worst result somewhere in the -£30’s. It’s going to be difficult to get a record this year with turnover down, but I’m hopeful of a decent, above average, week.
It’s noticeable that it’s taking longer to get bets matched and that’s increasing the risk somewhat. One of the other things, that often amazes me, is how often big fields are almost overbroke at times. It’s incredible to see a 28 runner field starting at big prices available to back at close to 100% on the back side, just amazing. I’m not sure how the market finds itself in those sorts of situations.
We also had the weirdest chart I have ever seen at a big meeting this week. I was pretty open mouthed when I watching the price of ‘Bracing Breeze’ skyrocket from a steady 7.5 up to 14.5 just before the off, only to come crashing back in shortly afterwards. Amazing stuff. You can see a large lay order hit the market at just under 10’s and there was a mass panic to exit. Somebody got an excellent back price on that! The price was way out of kilter with reality.
Large bets seems to be rare in these markets nowadays, so when I use big stakes at these meetings I have to be more certain than ever that I am doing the right thing. Because my orders take so long to open or close, every second I spend in the market exposes me to a situation that could lose money, or worse still a move like the graph above! You would be surprised at how small a lot of the bets and trades are in the market. I’ll do a full analysis when Ascot is over. Have a look at an extract from just one of the many positions I put in the market. It’s makes for interesting reading (see below).
Any how, steady as she goes so far, volume down, so expectations a little lower. But looking OK for the week.
Category: Horse Racing
