What does value look like, on a bigger scale

I did a post some time ago called, ‘What value looks like’. Here is the same effect but on a much grander scale, though you should not the familiarity between the two. Finding value is one of the hardest things to do in any betting market because usually the market is hyper efficient. But probably the biggest issue is the wild swings you can get and how they affect your psychology.

In the graph you can see we start at zero, obviously, but we immediately sink at the start. If you were doing this yourself, would you have the nerve to hold on at that point or your cut out, or even worse invert the strategy?

This is the biggest issue I see in trading, gambling or investing, the ability to overcome short term volatility. You need to see the bigger picture and that’s easy in arrears but when you are in the thick of the battle, that’s not so easy to do

When you are doing well it’s easy to think you are a god and when you are doing badly it’s easy to think you are a moron. This is one key reason that people have trouble replicating or even creating successful strategies. The psychology,  pressure and anxieties just get too much. You almost have to not care about the result. But, of course, that’s really hard to do especially when using real money. It’s even harder if you are reliant on that income.

I’ve learnt to be very level headed, even when things are going fantastically well. That is because I know that will help me cope when things are not going so well. Because of this, an exceptional loss doesn’t feel so bad and a big win feels like it’s just pre paying a potential loss. All I care about is that I am up at the end of the cycle.

You can see from the dashed line that the trend is definitely upward. But can also see some of the wild swings in fortune. I can’t control that, so I don’t fret on it or congratulate myself either. I just know that’s expected behaviour. All I can do is focus relentlessly on looking for opportunities.

Tags: betting, psychology, trading, value, what does value look like

Category: Trading strategies