Some US Open tennis detail
I meant to post this earlier in the week, but other matters have over taken me, but I hope this gives you a hint at some of the metrics and variation at this tournament.
The surface at the US Open has been Decoturf since 1978. This is faster and has a lower bounce than the other Hard court slam, the Australian open. Because of this, many serve-and-volley players have done well at the US Open.
I looked back over 13 years of grand slam data at round progression to see if there was much variation on when seeded players could get knocked out. Best US Open tournament was in 2000, when trading Tennis in play was but a twinkle in the eye. Back then the the first and second ranked players went out in rounds one and two. Over the last five years the highest ranked player out in either round was sixth. You tend to find post peak seeds are more vulnerable to early exits. It’s interesting to note in the last five years early exists are less likely than in the past. Overall and in comparison to the other slams, seeds are less likely to exit at the US Open early on looking at the stats.
Weather has played quite a part in this tournament, last year the wind had played big part. The past five Men’s Singles finals had been delayed by one day due to poor weather conditions. The rain this year has already messed up the schedule and it’s less favourable for Murray. As ‘redhead’ pointed out in the excellent US Open thread on the forum, “Playing his 1st round match on the 3rd day he’ll have to play 7 matches in 13 days, which means back-to-back matches without a day of rest at some point if he makes the final”
While I can’t be 100% precise due to collection errors, it terms of games played the chance of a 1.01 gubbing is about the same as in Australia which isn’t a total shock as they are played on hard courts. It’s ahead of Wimbledon by a fair margin and just ahead of the French Open. In terms of overall volatility it’s the least variable of all the slams, but only a bit. Most other metrics such as two set come backs, favourite losing the first set and going on to win etc and very similar to the Australian open.
Top ranked hard court players at the moment, Djokovic, Murray, Nadal, Berdych, Ferrer, Del Porto. Nadal is favourite because of his current form. Others of note, Raonic, from across the border and Isner on home turf may perform higher than their world rankings suggest.
Category: Tennis
