Early kick off – Match preview
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Man City v Everton
While David Moyes’ first Manchester derby at The Etihad turned into a nightmare, his Everton team always had an excellent record here. With Roberto Martinez having good memories of playing City from last season’s FA Cup final, can The Toffees maintain their unbeaten start?
Everton are the only unbeaten side in the Premier League but City have comfortably won all three of their home games. Everton have drawn half their 22 away games since the start of last season, including six of their last nine trips to top-half teams. Furthermore, in the past three seasons they’ve lost only 9/17 trips to top-six finishers, with seven draws. This suggests there is some value on the draw.
However, we expect Sergio Aguero, and probably David Silva, to return to the side that lost at Aston Villa. City’s win rate with Aguero is 72%, compared to just 54% without, while Silva’s is almost the same. In the 28 home games Aguero has started and completed at least an hour, City have won 25 times, including 16/19 hosting top-half teams. Furthermore, 15 of those 19 home games were against teams that also finished in the top half and 12 resulted in City wins, with 10 by one or two-goal margins. Dutching City to win by one goal at 3.7 or two goals at 5.25 returns at 2.17 and that looks the best bet in the match outcome markets.
Everton’s last two games have both finished 3-2 and Roberto Martinez’ Wigan side were generally an attacking side that delivered high-scoring games. Six of City’s last nine home games against top-half teams have finished with +2.5 goals. The Toffees have scored in 14 of their last 15 games against City and since 2011/12, 16/18 home games that City have conceded in have had +2.5 goals, with 13 having four or more. Over 2.5 goals looks the best bet here at 1.8.
Category: Football trading strategies
