Sunday match previews

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In the first fixture, I will forever remember the cat trick at Anfield which livened up a rather dull 0-0 draw in the reverse fixture that year.

Spurs v Liverpool (Sun 16:00)

 While Liverpool have certainly been the more eye-catching of these two teams this season there is just three points between the sides as they meet at White Hart Lane. Spurs produced two battling wins on the road last week and now must improve their home form. Liverpool, meanwhile, have a poor away record this season, where they’ve been very vulnerable at the back.

 Spurs have won this fixture in each of the past five seasons and they should fancy their chances against this Liverpool defence that has conceded 13 times in their last six away matches. Spurs have won 12 and drawn four of their last 16 home matches when scoring. Liverpool have won just two of their last 15 trips to top-half teams while losing seven times. Furthermore, they are missing both Steven Gerrard and Daniel Sturridge and Spurs look a great price at 2.5.

Spurs games have not been overflowing with goals this season and six of their last 10 home matches against top-half teams have had fewer than three strikes. Liverpool’s matches, however, have been quite the opposite as nine of their last 10 games have had four or more goals. Without Gerrard and Sturridge we’d expect their goals output to drop but on balance the goals markets look best avoided here.

Sevilla v Athletic Bilbao (Sun 18:00)

Sevilla are up to eighth after they followed up their first away win in over a year by immediately claiming a second to make it three wins on the spin a fortnight ago. Athletic, meanwhile, ended Barcelona’s unbeaten start, and deserved to.

Sevilla have won 13 of their last 18 home matches and it’s their home form that has maintained their top-half status in recent seasons. In the past two terms they’ve won 8/14 home games against top-half non-Big Two finishers. Athletic have conceded in 16 of their last 18 away matches and have lost four of their last six on the road – they also rely on their home form. In the past two seasons they’ve W1-D4-L10 away to top-half non-Big Two finishers, although that win was at Sevilla. It’s hard to look past home advantage here and Sevilla can be backed at 2.1.

 Goals, however, looks the best way to go in this match. 16 of Sevilla’s last 17 home matches have had at least three goals and they’re unlikely to be changing tactics now. Eight of those matches actually had four or more goals, while this fixture has had more than a brace in four of the last five years. Six of Athletic’s last nine away games have also seen at least three goals and six of their nine trips to top-half non-Big Two teams since the start of last season have seen at least two first-half goals with none being goalless at the break. 21 of Sevilla’s last 22 home games that have featured first-half goals have had +2.5 strikes with 12 having +3.5. Over 2.5 Goals looks a great price at 1.73 with Over 3.5 worth considering at 2.9.

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Category: Football trading strategies