Picking an FA Cup shock
Ah, the romance of the FA Cup!
The romance bit comes from a non league team coming up against a major club and beating them. But the evidence for regular giant killings is a little thin on the ground.
Last year of course Wigan ensured the demise of Mancini’s tenure at Man City by winning the Cup. In 2012, for the first time since 1994, a minor team made the fifth round. In the prior year a league two team made the fifth round, but there are often many years where this doesn’t occur. Since the start of the Premier League no team from outside the it has won the FA Cup and just two have reached the final. In the period 1973-82 three second-tier teams won it and two more reached the final.
Whether a small club can make any progress really is the luck of the draw and there lies the appeal of the FA Cup. If some major teams fall by the wayside and there are a couple of early round exits then the path can be laid for a good old fashioned cup run. But, according to the stats, the depressing fact is that the major teams are the ones that end up in the latter stages.
The thing I like about the FA Cup though is the fact it is not seeded. In Tennis the whole tournament is geared to the bias for top players to meet in the latter stages. This makes commercial sense as people would want to watch top players in a titanic battle for the title. Football though is highly variable and settled by the odd goal in three quite often. So a bit of luck you can see a team progress.
With only 90 mins to decide a match, a bit of luck can make a huge difference. So the first thing I look for is teams that are either high or low on confidence. Low confidence teams have a tendency to be nervous and can slip up. For a team brimming with confidence nothing is impossible and they will have a go anyhow! Next you need that team to be playing at home. Home advantage is worth around 0.40 of a goal on average, so if a team is at home you can pretty much factor in a head start. The 3rd round draw hasn’t been particularly kind to throwing up predictable shocks this year. But there are some interesting set ups.
Possible tricky matches
Southampton vs. Burnley is a possible upset. After a great start Southampton are out of form at the moment and have let in 9 goals at home in the last three games. Meanwhile Burnley are flying and have their eyes firmly set on the Premier league. If Burnley were at home I would fancy them for to get through, but maybe no win for Southampton may be a better bet as they hold home advantage. Nottingham Forest look a decent chance against a West Ham team low on goals and morale.
While I can’t see them winning because of Chelsea’s strength in depth, Derby vs. Chelsea could throw up some fun. Losing their last match at home hasn’t helped. But it could throw up a decent cup tie.
One thing that may help dump some teams out of the cup is the current apathy surrounding the FA Cup by top teams. It seems each year that passes it becomes more of an annoyance than something to win. With that in mind, the chance of a slip up is always there.
Good luck whatever you are doing!
Category: Football trading strategies
