Liverpool vs Arsenal
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Premier League: Liverpool v Arsenal (Sat, 12:45)
Arsenal, in recent seasons, have been characterised by their awful record against the league’s other top teams. In the four seasons prior to this they lost 12 and won only two of 20 away matches against other top-six finishers, while their equivalent home record of W8-D6-L6 is hardly stellar either. In a season that has marked a revival of sorts they continue to struggle in these matches, having lost at both Manchester clubs – the only sides in the top seven they’ve been to so far.
Liverpool have beaten both Everton and Man Utd at home this season as they’ve won 10 of their 12 Anfield matches. That they still have to play four of the current top six at home suggests their stats are slightly skewed but they’ve been undoubtedly impressive there this season. However, in the previous two seasons the Reds won none of their eight home games against top-four finishers (W0-D5-L3) and with one win in three games since Lucas’ injury it may be that run continues. Furthermore, it’s been almost seven years since Liverpool beat Arsenal at Anfield in the league and the Draw looks the best value in the match.
Over 2.5 Goals is predictably short here given Liverpool’s record of three or more goals in 16 of their last 19 games including four or more goals in eight of their last nine at home. However, Arsenal have kept 10 clean sheets in 16 matches with seven of their last 10 games being goalless at half-time. Only Fulham have kept fewer clean sheets than Liverpool in their last 20 games, but only 14 of the 27 Arsenal away matches in which they’ve scored since the start of last season have had more than two goals and the goals markets look best avoided.
Category: Football trading strategies
