FA Cup trading so far..
A quick review of how the FA Cup has traded so far this year. Pretty much the same as prior years TBH.
In the third round Premier league teams were 96.84% of the market. Today that stands at 99.15%, I think the winner could perhaps come from the premier league this year! If you look at the movers from the third round you see a slightly clearer picture, but obviously a lot of that is down to the draw: –
Man City 5.8 to 4.4
Arsenal 10.5 to 6.6
Chelsea 6.8 to 7
Everton 15 to 7.2
Liverpool 8.4 to 7.2
Southampton 28 to 13.5
Sunderland 70 to 34
Swansea 95 to 36
Hull City 60 to 29
Cardiff City 150 to 38
Nottm Forest 230 to 70
Brighton 260 to 80
Wigan 230 to 150
Sheff Wed 440 to 130
Sheff Utd 760 to 200
Charlton 260 to 210
The fifth round draw helped Everton who came in from 9.40 to 7.20 and Man City who moved from 5.30 to 4.40. Chelsea drifted from 5.70 to 7.00 and Arsenal from 5.8 to 6.60. Hull’s favourable draw pulled them in from 50 to 29.
The obvious trade here is on the basis that the matches are split. City and Chelsea account for 37% of the market but may not be at the end of the match, which starts at 17:15. You also have the vagaries of the draw, so the winner could be drawn against any of the remaining teams. We have a repeat performance on Sunday when Arsenal meet Liverpool. Not 100% sure when the draw will be made but it will obviously significantly affect the FA Cup outright winner odds on Brighton or Hull with that match on a Monday.
But in general on the FA Cup it’s business as usual at the moment.
Category: Football trading strategies
