Champions League – City vs Barca – Curious
Ahhh, after the disappointment of the FA Cup at the weekend we transition into something altogether different.
I like the knock out phases of this competition as it brings a real incentive to score (or not). So that adds to the dynamics of the matches. The volume bumps up as well so that means you can get stuck into the markets. The big matches out there now should engage your interest because they will be good practice for the World Cup later in the year. I thought I’d have a look at the City match and see what the odds have told us in the past.
The curious thing for starters was that went I cut the data for an exact match I found five matches which ended 0-0, three 1-1’s and a 3-3, curious. I widened it a little further and found the following: –
I looked at our historical database of matches and found 50 matches that looked very similar. The market is discounting a 32.8% chance of a Man City win, a 40.7% chance of a Barcelona win and a 27.4% chance of a draw. Our historical data shows that a match like this has produced, in the past, a 16% chance of a home win, a 32% chance of a away win and a 52% chance of a draw. This converts into odds of 6.25 3.13 & 1.92 respectively. If you feel that historic data is a good guide to this match, then this suggests that the draw is too long, overpriced and therefore you should back it.
The market is forecasting 3.05 goals. Historically there have been 2.12 goals in similar matches according to our database. The market is pricing over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.71. Historically 34% of similar matches ended over 2.5 goals which translates into digital odds of 2.94. This is hinting at lay value in this market.
The home team has scored at least one goal in 62% of matches. The away team has scored at least one goal in 72% of matches. The home team have scored two or more goals on 20% of occasions and three or more goals on 34% of occasions. The away team have scored two or more goals on 34% of occasions and three or more goals on 16% of occasions.
That data throws up an interesting divergence from the market. Looking forward to the match.
Variation on a theme
Category: Football trading strategies
