Man Utd vs. Olympiakos
Do or die for Man Utd and to a certain extent David Moyes tonight. Looking forward to the match.
We looked at our historical database of matches and found 70 matches that looked very similar. The market is discounting a 65.4% chance of a Man Utd win, a 13.9% chance of a Olympiakos win and a 21.3% chance of a draw. Our historical data shows that a match like this has produced, in the past, a 65.7% chance of a home win, a 10% chance of a away win and a 24.3% chance of a draw. This converts into odds of 1.52 10 & 4.12 respectively.
The market is forecasting 2.83 goals. Historically there have been 3.16 goals in similar matches according to our database. The market is pricing over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.9. Historically 55.7% of similar matches ended over 2.5 goals which translates into decimal odds of 1.8. This is hinting at back value in this market.
The home team has scored at least one goal in 94.3% of matches. The away team has scored at least one goal in 61.4% of matches. The home team have scored two or more goals on 68.6% of occasions and three or more goals on 18.6% of occasions. The away team have scored two or more goals on 18.6% of occasions and three or more goals on 8.6% of occasions.Both teams have scored 57.14% of the time or decimal odds of 1.75
Recent similar matches
Home – 2013 – Schalke vs Fortuna Dusseldorf – Result – 2-1
Home – 2013 – Sevilla vs Celta Vigo – Result – 4-1
Away – 2013 – Lyon vs Sochaux – Result – 1-2
Home – 2013 – Dortmund vs Mainz – Result – 2-0
Home – 2013 – Chelsea vs Basel – Result – 3-1
Home – 2013 – Celtic vs St Johnstone – Result – 4-0
Category: Football trading strategies
