Saturday Soccer Stats
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Cardiff City v Liverpool
- Since 2010/11 Liverpool have lost 7 of their 10 trips to promoted teams while 8 have had at least 3 goals
- 13 of Liverpool’s last 16 away matches have had at least 3 goals, with 10 having 4 or more
- Liverpool have scored before half-time in an incredible 15 of their last 16 away matches
- 8 of Cardiff’s last 12 home matches have had at least 3 goals
Everton v Swansea
- Swansea have lost their last 10 away matches against top-half teams, and trailed at half-time in 7 of the defeats
- Everton have lost just 1 of their last 23 home games and have won 7 of the last 8
- 11 of Everton’s 18 home games against bottom-half teams since the start of last season have had at least 3 goals, with 15 having at least 1 goal before half-time
- 7 of Swansea’s last 8 away matches have had a first-half goal and 5 of the last 7 have seen more goals in the first half than the second
Norwich v Sunderland
- Norwich have won this fixture 2-1 in each of the past 2 seasons
- Norwich’s last 8 home matches have been level at half-time with the last 6 all goalless
- 9 of Norwich’s last 14 home games have had fewer than 2 goals
- 4 of Sunderland’s last 9 matches (home or away) against bottom-half teams have finished goalless, while 8 of the last 10 have had fewer than 3 goals
West Ham v Man Utd
- West Ham have lost 9 of their last 10 league meetings with Man Utd, including 7 defeats by more than 1 goal
- West Ham have conceded exactly 3 times in 5 of their 6 home games this season against the current top 9
- Man Utd have won 16 of 21 trips to bottom-half teams since the start of last season, including 7 of 9 this term
- 9 of West Ham’s last 10 home games against bottom-half teams have had at least 3 goals
Spurs v Southampton
- Spurs have lost just 1 home match since 2009/10 having lost their previous home game (W9-D4-L1)
- 7 of Spurs’ last 11 home matches against teams placed 5th-11th have had fewer than 3 goals
- Southampton have won only 1 of 15 trips to top-half teams since the start of last season (W1-D5-L9)
- 6 of Southampton’s last 8 trips to top-half teams have had fewer than 3 goals
- Spurs have won all 3 of their matches against Southampton since the start of last season
Aston Villa v Stoke
- This fixture has been drawn in 4 of the past 5 seasons
- Aston Villa have drawn the first half in 8 of their last 11 home matches
- Stoke have drawn 7 of 12 trips to middle-third sides since the start of last season (W0-D7-L5)
- Stoke have lost 0-1 in 10 of their 34 away matches since the start of last season
MATCH PREVIEWS
Chelsea v Arsenal (Sat 12:45)
Chelsea have won this fixture in three of the past four seasons and another win here could almost eliminate one of their rivals for the title. Since Jose Mourinho took back over Chelsea have been superb at home with 13 wins from 15 matches this season, and further back they are unbeaten in 24 home games. Moreover, they’ve already hosted eight of the other teams currently in the top half this season and beaten them all.
Arsenal in contrast have been thrashed at Liverpool and Man City this term, and in the previous four seasons they lost 10 of 12 trips to top-four finishers. The Gunners did record a good win at Spurs last weekend but they might be facing Chelsea at a bad time after the Blues’ shock defeat last weekend; since 2010/11 Chelsea have won 14 of 19 home games following a defeat with just one reverse. Overall Chelsea look clear favourites and at 2.0 represent a bit of value.
Both teams have generally been very solid defensively this season and it would be a surprise to see a goal-fest here, even if Arsenal have had two shocking defensive performances at Liverpool and Man City this season. Chelsea put four past Spurs in the second half of their last home game but in their current 24 game unbeaten streak at home they’ve scored exactly twice on 14 occasions and three or more goals just six times. Half the 24 matches have had 2-3 goals as have five of their last eight home games against top-six teams, which have included six wins by exactly one goal. Chelsea to win by one is a great price at 3.95, while 2-3 match goals can be backed at 2.0.
Real Madrid v Barcelona (Sun 20:00)
Real Madrid have been unbeaten since defeat in the opening Clasico this season. They’ve won 15 of 18 matches in that spell and with 10 clean sheets in their last 15 games they are performing superbly at both ends of the pitch. Furthermore, Real have won all of their last nine home games by at least two goals.
Barcelona won 7-0 last weekend with Lionel Messi scoring a hat-trick and on the back of a dominant display in the Champions League they will hope their poor form is behind them. However, while they’ve won their last three home matches by seven, three and six goals respectively, on the road they’ve won only two of their last seven games and are looking to avoid a third consecutive away defeat. With just one point from their three trips to the current top five this season Barca may be in for a tough night. The Catalans have failed to win in any of their three trips to the Bernabeu since the start of last season and backing Real Madrid on the Asian Handicap -0.25 looks a great price at 2.05.
Goals tend to feature when these teams play each other. The last 14 meetings in all competitions have seen both teams score but Real certainly come into this game in better defensive form than before any of those other games. Barca, meanwhile, have failed to score in four of their last 10 away matches and half their 14 away games this term have had fewer than three goals. Both Barca’s games against Real and Atletico this season have been quite cagey affairs but with the attacking quality on display we could easily see an early goal open the game up so we’ll leave the goals markets alone.
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PLAYER ANALYSIS
Using Form Lab Black’s player analysis tool we’ve looked around Europe and found three teams who will be missing important players in this round of matches and without them they look set to struggle.
N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.
Hull v WBA – Jonas Olsson, Defender, WBA
Since 2011/12 Olsson has missed just 10 games for West Brom and without him they are yet to win. Furthermore, they’ve conceded first in all 10 games, although they’ve come back to draw on three occasions. A Hull win is a tempting 2.15, although these are nervous times in the bottom-half and it might pay to have some cover on the draw.
Hearts v Dundee – Nadir Ciftci, Forward, Dundee
Dundee United’s top scorer is suspended and this season they’ve scored 2.06 goals per game with Ciftci compared to just 1.42 gpg in the 12 matches he’s missed. Furthermore, while 65% of the 17 games he’s played have had +2.5 goals, this falls to just 50% without him.
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