Saturday Soccer Stats
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Crystal Palace v Chelsea
- Palace have picked up just 1 point from 14 games against the top 9 this season and they’ve scored just 2 goals in the process
- 9 of Palace’s last 11 home matches have had fewer than 3 goals
- 7 of Chelsea’s last 9 wins have been by at least 2 clear goals and 7 of 9 have been to nil
Southampton v Newcastle
- Southampton have kept just 1 clean sheet in their last 10 home games with 8 of the matches having at least 3 goals
- Southampton have scored first in 6 of their last 7 home matches against middle-third teams
- Newcastle have drawn only 1 of their last 16 away matches
- 5 of Newcastle’s 7 trips to middle-third teams this season have had at least 3 goals
Arsenal v Man City
- Arsenal’s last 9 home matches against top-six teams have all had fewer than 3 goals
- 6 of Arsenal’s last 8 home games have been goalless at half-time
- Arsenal have won just 1 of their last 6 games against Man City
- Man City have won 7 of their last 9 away matches and were ahead at half-time in 6 of the wins
- Man City have won 5 of their 9 trips to top-six sides since the start of last season including 3 2-1 wins
Fulham v Everton
- Fulham have lost 12 of their last 15 home matches against top-half teams
- 9 of Fulham’s last 11 home games have had at least 3 goals
- Fulham have lost 8 of 11 matches against Everton since 2008/09 including 6 defeats where they were behind by half-time
Liverpool v Spurs
- Liverpool have won 14 of their last 16 home matches and they were ahead at half-time in all 14 wins
- 10 of Liverpool’s last 12 home games have had at least 4 goals
- There have been 3 or more goals in 8 of Spurs’ last 9 trips to top-six teams with at least 4 goals in 6 of the games
- Spurs have conceded 21 goals in their 5 games this season against the current top 3 – and they’ve scored just twice
Sunderland v West Ham
- Sunderland are unbeaten in their last 5 meetings with West Ham
- 7 of Sunderland’s last 10 home matches against middle-third teams have had fewer than 3 goals
- 7 of West Ham’s last 10 trips to bottom-half teams have had fewer than 3 goals
- West Ham have won only 1 of their last 15 away matches against bottom-half teams with 10 defeats
Premier League: Arsenal v Man City (Sat, 17:30)
We’ve highlighted Arsenal’s awful record against the top teams on several occasions this season and with a trip to Everton next they could find themselves dropping out of the Champions League spots soon.
The Gunners have won only three of their last nine matches and two of those were against teams in the bottom four. They are unbeaten in 14 home matches but have drawn their last three games against the current top seven. City have won seven for their last nine away matches, and 15 of 18 home and away. Furthermore, they have won half their 10 trips to top-six finishers in the previous two seasons and this term have won two of three matches at the current top seven. With Arsenal suffering with a number of injuries the away side look a touch of value at 2.1.
Arsenal’s last nine home games against top-six teams have all had fewer than three goals and the Gunners have been unconvincing in attack in recent times. While they’ve been rolled over at Chelsea and Liverpool in recent weeks they should be much stronger here and we are likely to see a cautious game. Nine of their last 11 home games have had fewer than three goals and after earlier hammerings this season at City (3-6) and Liverpool (1-5) they’ve had nil-nils in their following home games. At the same time that Arsenal have been struggling for goals City have been improving defensively. They’ve kept five consecutive clean sheets and this fixture has had fewer than three goals in each of the last five seasons. Under 2.5 Goals look excellent value at 2.15 while a goalless opening half is a tempting 3.45.
Player Analysis:
Using Form Lab Black’s player analysis tool we look at a three significant players who will be missing this weekend and see what their absence might mean.
N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.
WBA v Cardiff
Jonas Olsson, Defender, WBA
Since 2011/12 Olsson has missed 11 games for West Brom and without him they are yet to win. Furthermore, they’ve conceded first in all 11 games, going on to lose eight times, including at Hull last weekend. Cardiff have lost eight consecutive away matches but if you fancy them to get a shock win they are a juicy 4.65
Torino v Cagliari
Ciro Immobile, Forward, Torino
Immobile has scored seven times in his nine home games this season as Torino have won five times and five of the matches have had at least three goals. However, in the six home games he’s missed they’ve won only once and the last four have had just four match goals in total. Cagliari are also without one of their regular forwards and Under 2.5 Goals can be backed at 1.70.
Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid
Ander Herrera, Midfielder, Athletic Bilbao
Herrera has missed just 17 of 68 Athletic games since the start of last season and they’ve conceded 41% more goals per game in those matches than when he’s been playing. With that in mind Over 2.5 Goals could be a decent bet at 2.10.
Category: Football trading strategies
