Title decider
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No two ways about it this is the match that will most likely decide where the title will go. If City drop two points then it’s Liverpool’s to lose. If City win then Liverpool will find it very hard to make up ground. Should be a cracking match. I’m going to give Liverpool the nudge, I think momentum is with them and I reckon the crowd will be imposing. Liverpool really want this and I think City want it less and will live to fight another day. This is Liverpool’s big chance and they are really up for it.
I’m looking forward to the match but unfortunately will be at the London Marathon. I wont be running it but as a veteran of the race I tend to go to support the current runners and any friends I know in the race. So I’m going to have to keep touch via iPhone! It’s shame but I can’t let friends down. Good luck if you are trading it.
Premier League: Liverpool v Man City statistics from football form labs
Liverpool are unbeaten in 11 home games against Man City in all competitions but five of the last six have finished level.
Liverpool have won 15 of their last 17 home matches with Spurs, Arsenal and Everton all being handed four-goal beatings here in recent weeks. Home and away they have now won nine consecutive matches and a 10th will put them firmly in control of the title race.
Man City have lost only one of their last 20 matches and are unbeaten in 10 on the road. A win here would see them become very strong favourites for the title but a draw would still be an excellent result. In the past couple of seasons City have tended to raise their game away to the best teams, with most of their troubles on the road actually coming at bottom-half sides. They’ve won five and lost only two of their eight trips to top five finishers in the past two campaigns and this term, after slipping up at Chelsea early on, they’ve impressively beaten Man Utd and Spurs while drawing at Arsenal in their toughest away matches. Statistically there is little to split the teams and we’ll leave the match outcome markets alone.
Looking at clashes between two top-five finishers between 2008/09 to 2012/13 we see that the 70 matches from the start of the season to the end of February averaged 3.06 goals per game but this drops to 2.67 gpg from March to the end of the season. The number of goalless opening halves in these games increased from 26% to 40% later in the term. However, with both teams’ high scoring natures we should see goals. Six of Man City’s eight trips to top-five finishers in the previous two seasons and three of their four games at the current top seven this term have seen more goals in the second half than the first and it’s 2.15 it happens again.
Sergio Aguero looks set to return to the City side and, if fully fit, his return is a huge boost to the Citizens. The Argentine has been sublime when fit this season and his return could be the X factor that separates these sides. He’s only started 15 of their 31 games but with him they’ve averaged 3.33 goals per game compared to just 2.12 otherwise. Furthermore, he’s scored in five of his seven away starts and his last two league starts against Liverpool. At 2.75 Aguero to score anytime looks good value.
Category: Football trading strategies
