Saturday Soccer Stats
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Premier League: Liverpool v Chelsea
Liverpool have won 11 consecutive matches to take a commanding lead in the title race. With Chelsea’s chances having been all but finished last weekend with defeat to Sunderland they are now expected to rest several players ahead of next week’s Champions League second leg.
However, Chelsea’s line-up will probably still have cost more than Liverpool’s and there will be a number of players keen to impress so it would be wrong to expect an easy ride for the home team in an encounter between the league’s best attack and best defence. Chelsea have lost only one of their five trips this season to the current top seven (W1-D3-L1) as they’ve kept three clean sheets. Those games actually saw just four goals in total and if anyone can stop Liverpool’s attack it will be Jose Mourinho’s side.
Liverpool have scored at least twice in 14 consecutive home matches and had netted before the break in each of those games. Arsenal, Everton and Spurs have all been handed four-goal thrashings here this season but there have been some nervy signs in recent games against Norwich, Man City and West Ham. Despite their first-half scoring record six of their last eight matches have had more goals in the second half than the first while Chelsea haven’t conceded before half-time in their last nine away games.
A draw would be an excellent result for Liverpool and with all the pressure on them this might be one occasion they don’t manage to fly out of the blocks. Eight of Chelsea’s last 10 away games have been level at half-time and another draw at the break is decent value at 2.5.
La Liga: Valencia v Atletico Madrid
Valencia have very little to play for domestically with their focus far more on the Europa League semi-final second leg next week. Atletico, meanwhile, know they just need three wins from their final four games to claim the title.
Atletico have won eight consecutive matches during which they’ve conceded just one goal. Moreover, they’ve won seven of their last nine trips to middle-third teams. All these wins have been by just one or two goals and while they are deservedly clear favourites it would be a surprise if they thrashed Valencia.
The home side have lost three of their five home games against the current top six but they’ve only once in their last 25 home matches lost by more than one goal. They are, however, a team in decline and have won just one of their last five matches, all of which have been against the current bottom six. Like Valencia, Atletico have a European semi-final next week but they look worth a punt to win here by exactly one goal at 3.6.
Alternatively, the Draw/Atletico double result is worth considering with six of their last eight wins coming after half-time draws and six of Valencia’s last eight defeats coming after being level or ahead at the break. Draw/Atletico is a juicy looking 5.0.
Serie A: Inter v Napoli
Napoli are all but confirmed in third while Inter are pushing Fiorentina hard for fourth and are looking for a third consecutive win.
With Napoli’s position in the league so secure they may be tempted to rest a few players here ahead of the Italian Cup final next Friday. They do have an excellent recent record against Inter having won four of their five meetings since 2011/12, although they did lose here last season and have lost half their six trips this term to the current top eight.
Inter have lost only two home games all season but too many draws have cost them valuable points. They’ve shown a greater cutting edge in recent weeks however, with Hernanes settling in after his January move, and they’ve won six of their last 11 home games against top-six teams. They’ve also lost just one of their last 12 matches home or away and with the greater motivation here they look worth backing at 1.91 on the Asian Handicap -0.25.
Inter have not managed to keep a clean sheet in any of their 14 home games against top-six teams since 2011/12 but their current defensive record is much better than its been in recent years and nine of their last 12 home games have actually had fewer than three goals. Napoli also have a decent defensive record but given there tends to be an increase in goals at this time of the season we’ll avoid the goals markets.
Category: Football trading strategies
