Weekend Soccer Stats
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Newcastle v Cardiff
- 8 of Newcastle’s last 10 home games against bottom-six teams have had at least 3 goals
- Newcastle have lost 5 of their last 8 home matches against bottom-six teams
- Cardiff have drawn the first half in 9 of their last 16 away matches
Stoke v Fulham
- Stoke have picked up just 1 point from the last 7 matches Ryan Shawcross has missed
- 16 of Fulham’s last 23 away matches have had more goals in the 2nd half than the 1st
- 10 of Stoke’s 19 home games against bottom-half teams since the start of last season have been goalless at half-time
Everton v Man City: See below for full preview
Arsenal v West Brom
- 6 of Arsenal’s last 7 matches have had at least 3 goals
- West Brom’s last 14 matches have all had a goal before half-time
- Arsenal’s last 11 home wins have been by at least 2 goals
- West Brom have lost 9 of their last 10 trips to top-six teams with 8 loss/loss doubles
Chelsea v Norwich
- Chelsea have had win/win doubles in 4 of their last 5 meetings with Norwich
- 13 of Chelsea’s 15 home matches against bottom-six teams since 2011/12 have had at least 3 goals
- 7 of Norwich’s last 10 trips to top-six teams have had at least 4 goals
- Norwich have trailed at half-time in 12 of their 18 away matches this season
Real Madrid v Valencia: See below for a full preview
Crystal Palace v Liverpool
- 12 of Crystal Palace’s last 14 home games have had fewer than 3 goals
- 5 of Liverpool’s last 8 trips to middle-third teams have been level at half-time
- 9 of Crystal Palace’s 10 defeats under Tony Pulis have been to nil
MATCH PREVIEWS
Premier League: Everton v Man City (Sat, 17:30)
Recent defeats to Crystal Palace and Southampton have left Everton hoping Arsenal fail to win both of their remaining games if they are to qualify for the Champions League. The Toffees have an excellent record against Man City but they were beaten 3-1 in the reverse fixture and are missing several players for this game.
Everton have only lost twice at home this season and those came against Sunderland and Palace, as they’ve been excellent when hosting the top teams. However, player absences cost them last week when defensive mistakes contributed to two own goals. Phil Jagielka is likely to return but after two months out may be rusty and Sylvain Distin is set to be ruled out. Leighton Baines is also a slight doubt but Gareth Barry will definitely not play against his parent club and two of the three matches he’s missed this season were the defeats to City and Palace.
Man City have won eight of their last 12 away matches with their only defeat the 3-2 loss at Anfield. Furthermore, they were ahead at half-time in seven of those eight wins. In the past two seasons City have won half their 10 away games against top-six finishers and this term they’ve won two of their five visits to the top seven. With Sergio Aguero back fit and Everton missing players the away win looks worth backing at 1.75.
Matches between these teams have tended to be low scoring affairs but with City scoring freely and Everton having the pressure off them after recent slip-ups we may see plenty of goalmouth action. Six of City’s last eight matches have had at least three goals as have four of their five visits to the top seven this season. With 11 of Everton’s last 16 home games seeing three or more goals we wouldn’t put anyone off the Over 2.5 Goals or Over 3.5 Goals markets. However, a better bet might be to back Sergio Aguero to score at 2.2. The Argentine has netted in 11 of his last 15 starts including the reverse fixture earlier this season.
La Liga: Real Madrid v Valencia (Sun, 20:00)
Real Madrid have won their last four league games by at least four goals and come into this game on a high after their destruction of Bayern. In contrast Valencia lost out on a European final spot on Thursday after conceding in injury time.
Madrid have won by at least two goals in each of their last 14 home matches against teams other than Barcelona and Atletico. Furthermore, nine of the last 11 of these wins have been by at least three clear goals. Valencia have nothing left to play for this season and they’ve won only three times on the road this season whilst failing to score in six of their last 10 away games. Real Madrid should win easily here and are worth backing to cover the Asian Handicap -2.5 at 2.0.
No side scores mores second-half goals than Real Madrid and only Atletico have stopped them scoring after the break in their last 24 home games. In their last 12 home games excluding against Barca they’ve scored at least twice after half-time 11 times with an average of 2.5 second-half goals per game. You can back Real to score Over 1.5 Second Half Goals at 1.67 and that looks a superb price.
Karim Benzema netted the winner in the first leg against Bayern but that is the only goal he’s scored in Real’s last nine games. However, he has scored in eight of his last 13 home matches and has been looking very sharp recently. Furthermore, he’s scored in three of the four Real home matches he’s started against Valencia and is a tempting 1.73 to score at anytime.
Player Analysis:
Using Form Lab Black’s player analysis tool we look at a three significant players who will be missing this weekend and see what their absence might mean.
N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.
Stoke v Fulham
Ryan Shawcross, Defender, Stoke
Stoke have picked up just one point in their last seven matches without captain Ryan Shawcross whilst conceding 19 goals.
Category: Football trading strategies
