Winning and ‘luck’
Once you get the winning mentality, it enters your bloodstream and doesn’t leave. But winning and luck isn’t random or down to chance, it is an art that is learned through endless painting of poor pictures, then through rubbing out mistakes and constant revision and practice. A winning mentality and ‘luck’ can be learnt…
This weekend I was invited to a charity ball. People like inviting me because I bid on things!
At the end of the evening I was bestowed with four gifts apparently won at random. ‘Lucky’ was the phrase banded about the table. But several of the guests I’d been with before noted I was always ‘lucky’. Let us dissect this weekends ‘luck’ by looking a bit deeper.
The thought process
The problem I have nowadays is that it’s hard for me to view anything at face value if there is some chance involved. I was a footy match last year when I was asked for my views on the match at half time. I’ve looked at the stats so much I immediately reeled off a range of probabilities, before I quickly realised it was a bit of a social faux pas. But that’s how I think now. If somebody offers up a chance, I’ll assess it.
I’m in London on Monday, but before I set out I’ll be working out the best route across town. I’ll choose the most efficient route, even if that involves doubling back on myself. Sometimes the most logical routes on the Tube aren’t the most obvious. But lets head back to my evening out. During the evening several ‘games’ were played while we ate, danced or chatted through the night. You would be surprised how a bit of thought can help you make better decisions, even in the most mundane situations.
The card game – Increasing your chance by timing
When somebody came to our table bearing cards, I immediately asked how the game was played. “Draw a picture card and you win a prize on the table over there”, mainly champagne. “If not?”, “You keep the card”. Anybody that knows about card counting will confirm the next move. But after bluffing and asking them to do other tables first, we became enthusiastic participants on the next arrival. That sorted the drinks for the night!
The raffle – Increasing your chance through selection
Next up was the raffle. On this occasion people were encouraged to hold onto both tickets and put the counter ticker in a bowl next to the description of the prize they wanted. Again I waited and noted the widely unequal distribution of tickets in bowls. Seeing that, I selected my targets and went all in. Returning to the table I confidently listed the item I felt we were going to win. During the break they drew my ticket and we collected. All I did here was increase my chance of winning by concentrating my tickets into pots were they would represent a bigger percentage and into one in particular. Was it luck that we won what I nominated?
Head or tails? – Increase your chance by not doing what others do
To round off they evening they did a game of head or tails. There were about 150 people there I guess. But when people are forced to quickly make decisions on which way a coin will drop, people choose irrationally. If there are three heads they will choose tails and vice versa. The reality is, that it is totally random.
By the way, there is a way to win a game of heads and tails with an opponent, despite the fact it is completely random. I’ll explain one day, but I think it’s best done live as people just can’t work out why you keep winning and that has greater impact than allowing people to dissect it first. It’s a good way to show, what looks like a paradox.
So, back to the game. When the call was made for a decision I simply looked at everybody else to see which decision would leave me in the minority group if it went my way. Each round eliminated 70% or so of people, because they followed a bias. Luck was with me somewhat, but I knew how few guesses I would need to win. I had a fair chance. A short time later, that left me as one of only two people that had made the correct calls. At that point there was no strategy other than guessing the opposite of the other person.
Luck is an acquired skill
I did resist the temptation to eliminate chance from everything and didn’t participate in a few things, yielding to others. But thanks to a bit of common sense logic I’ve got a number of nice prizes to enjoy and our table had a fab evening. You could argue perhaps that it wasn’t in the spirit of things? But I’m so tuned into chance that I find it almost impossible not to instinctively make the right decision. Everybody has the same choices, I just made slightly better ones! Also, I’m hardwired to think that like, but that’s a learned skill. At first it’s tough going, but soon it becomes easier to make judgements that are better than chance and eventually instinctive.
Sometimes you just need to make sure you don’t fall into the trap that the mind creates for you and that’s enough to get an edge and that’s why this type of thinking is perfectly suited to trading and risk taking in general. Make some effort to acquire this skill, think about it, others are not!
Category: Psychology
