World Cup Quarter finals
What have we learnt so far from the tournament?
Well Brazil are still favourites and Argentina and still second favourites. Germany has moved up a place thanks to the elimination of Spain.
At the start of the tournament the top 16 made up 99.1% of the book. The remaining teams now make up 99.9%, that’s not surprising considering the only remaining bottom half team are the ‘whipping boys’ Costa Rica. It’s amazing to think that Costa Rica were 1000 to win the tournament and here they are in the quarters! In summary, it made sense to dutch the bottom 16 in the group stages, but from there the focus returns to the top teams. Because of Spain’s elimination there was little value in doing anything clever at the front of the book. Both 1st and 2nd favourite are pretty much unchanged as well.
My strategy for the quarters to is look at opposing matches for an opportunity. Either France or Germany will be eliminated first, so 10-16% of the market needs to be re-distributed after than match. But either team will have to get past Brazil who play a little later. So a re-distribution will take place on the winner of that match, but less because of Brazil. The rest will be spread across both parts of the draw. With that match out of the way, it’s worth a punt on the remaining team in the tournament as, if Brazil slip up, their odds will collapse. You will also see a shift on the bottom half of the draw as well.
Liquidity should get a boost as well and that will help make these markets much more ‘tradeable’. Lets hope they are as entertaining as some of the other matches we have seen.
Category: Football trading strategies
