Das erste Halbfinale
I couldn’t talk about the Rio 2014 semi finals without paying homage to Germany’s remarkable record. Forget all the England coaches we have had in the past, why don’t we get a German in charge?
Die BBC hat eine schone Zusammenfassung: –
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/28202397
Der letzte “normale” Arbeit, die ich gemeint hatte, arbeitete ich für drei Jahre in Deutschland. So habe ich ein bisschen Deutsch in mir.
Onto the match however. It’s, not surprisingly, being priced as a tight affair with only 2.20 goals in the market. There is little or no supremacy to either team. Bear in mind Brazil are ‘at home’ so the market is giving the Germans a 0.40 head start in the match. I think that’s unrealistic. We had a load of people in the office yesterday and I said that I felt 3’s for Brazil was quite large, but I see it has contracted to 2.70’s now. But the market is still giving them no home advantage. I guess it hinges on the injuries to Brazil and whether the Germans will act as party poopers, I guess that is not beyond their pragmatic remit.
What do the stats say?
We looked at our historical database of matches and found 36 matches that looked very similar.
The market is discounting a 36.2% chance of a Brazil win, a 33.3% chance of a Germany win and a 30.8% chance of a draw. Our historical data shows that a match like this has produced, in the past, a 33.3% chance of a ‘home’ win, a 36.1% chance of a away win and a 30.6% chance of a draw. This converts into odds of 3, 2.77 & 3.27 respectively.
The ‘home’ team has scored at least one goal in 77.8% of matches. The away team has scored at least one goal in 66.7% of matches. The market is forecasting 2.24 goals. Historically there have been 2.36 goals in similar matches according to our database.
The interesting thing about this data is that it in includes ‘Home’ bias. That is worth 0.40 goals. So a large basis of your decision on how to bet or trade this match this evening will be on weather you think you should or shouldn’t apply the home advantage. That’s this match in a nutshell.
Category: Football trading strategies
