Did Betfair have a good World Cup?
Now the fuss has died down and the rioting taken place, it’s time to reflect on the World Cup.
From a footy perspective it was great. Much more entertaining than the previous world cups and plenty of talking points. England somehow managed to surpass even their supporters low expectations.
I managed to do a record amount on the World Cup, but that’s surprising as I spent most of last footy season carefully pulling together a number of things to deploy at the World Cup. I’m so glad it worked as I spent so much effort getting there it would have been a crushing blow to see it fail. As it is, I’ve learnt a lot.
Curiously my best market was the one that is usually the worst in the domestic season. So I’m busy digging through the data to find out why. About half way through the group stages I figured out what was happening and bumped up stakes. But it was a surprise to see and to learn that the liquidity in the World Cup shifted expectations so much. I’ve got a lot of digging to do, I’m going to focus on the Open Golf this week then probably have a break after that. But from then on it I’ll start digging around the data it real depth. However I have had a look at the top level and it was surprising.
I should add all these numbers are preliminary at the moment as I don’t’ have official data, I’ve just data taken from my trading screen. But the pre-off volumes seem to have shrank since 2010?
On the video I did before the tournament the group, 16, quarters, semi and final have average volumes of £8.6m, £8.3m, £10m, £20m & £23m in 2010
If you look at 2014, my preliminary data shows, £6.1m, £8.6m, £8.6m, £12.3m, £19m.
Was turnover just that much lower, did geography make a difference, or did the sportsbook suck money off the exchange? Difficult to tell, especially as I don’t have official data to hand just yet. It’s tricky at this stage to compare like for like, as I can’t. But the headline data seems to imply much lower totals than in 2010. I don’t think I’ve made any errors.
I’ll update you when I’ve got the proper data, but if anybody else has any view. Please comment.
One thing for sure, is that Germany had a great world cup. Congratulations!
Category: Football trading strategies
