Saturday Soccer Stats

Arsenal have gone 19 games without defeat at home but this Saturday they face the ultimate test as they host the champions, who have won 10 of their last 16 away games with just one defeat.

It’s matches like these that have proven to be Arsenal’s undoing in recent years as since 2009/10 they’ve lost 18 of 30 games against top-four finishers. At home they are much harder to beat of course, with a W6-D4-L5 record compared to W1-D1-L13 on the road but those still aren’t stellar stats.

In contrast City, if anything, raise their game against the best teams and have won 15 of 24 matches against top-five finishers in the past three seasons including half their 12 away matches (W6-D2-L4). City have led at half-time in each of the last four meetings between these teams but Arsenal have twice fought back to draw and that has been the result in this fixture in three of the past four seasons.

City certainly look a better bet than Arsenal here but we’d want some cover on the draw and would consider the Draw No Bet at 1.8. However, it is worth noting that 10 of their 11 away wins since the start of last season have been Win/Win doubles and Arsenal have conceded first in four of their last six home games, and in two of three matches this season. So the City/City double at 4.0 looks a good bet while the Gunners excellent second-half record suggests it is worth taking some cover on the City/Draw at 16.0 if you fancy the champions to start fast and lead at half-time.

In terms of goals the stat that stands out in this game is that all seven of Arsenal’s home matches against the top eight last season finished with fewer than three goals as have all of their last 10 home games against top-six sides. However, both teams have scored in each of City’s last seven trips to top-six finishers and 6/7 have had at least three goals. Given Arsenal’s main signings since last season have been in attack, with the additions of Alexis Sanchez and Danny Welbeck, and that all three of their matches this term have seen both teams score, we would side with Over 2.5 Goals at 1.83.
 

This is the third meeting between these teams this season and the seventh in 2014. Atletico edged the Spanish Super Cup last month and won this fixture in the league last term on their way to the title. However, Real were clear winners in their two Copa Del Rey legs and most importantly won the Champions League final 4-1 after extra-time.

Neither side have been particularly convincing in the opening two games as Real lost 4-2 at Sociedad last time out having taken an early two-goal lead while Atletico failed to beat Vallecano and only narrowly got past new boys Eibar at home.

Real’s goal threat is phenomenal and they’ve only once failed to score at least twice at home since the start of last season. The team that stopped them however is the same side they face here. Atletico will try to frustrate and they have a superb second-half record with seven of their 13 away wins since the start of last season coming after drawing the first half. Therefore, if Real are to win they may need to start well and with that in mind it’s significant that 10 of their last 11 wins have been Win/Win doubles and at 2.7 we prefer that to the home win at 1.7.

Over 2.5 Goals is being given as a coin toss here in the battle between Real’s attack and Atletico’s defence. That is probably fair given the away side’s record against the Big Two in all competitions over the past 12 months. All six of their games against Barcelona last season finished with fewer than three goals as have five of seven games against Real. However, Real’s record of at least three goals in 13 of their last 15 home games and four or more in 10/15 suggests the value may still lie with the ‘overs’. Furthermore, five of Real’s last eight home games against top-six finishers have had at least six goals.

One key component that is hard to quantify here is the impact of the touchline ban for Diego Simeone. An early goal or injury could lead to greater confusion than normal and allow Real to capitalise. We’d recommend backing Over 2.5 Goals at 1.95 and it’s probably worth a bit on Over 5.5 at 15.0.

Please note we’d advise keeping stakes low in the early weeks of a campaign due to the unpredictable nature of this stage of the season.