Saturday Soccer Stats

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Man City’s run of wins came to an abrupt end last weekend as they lost at West Ham while Man Utd salvaged a point at the death against leaders Chelsea. That late Robin van Persie equaliser did City a huge favour as they avoided falling eight points behind the Blues but they will be unwilling to repay it here as they starts as odds-on favourites.

City have won five of the last six derbies, including by three goal margins home and away last season. Given United’s defensive concerns a trip to the side averaging over three goals per game at home since the start of last season is probably not top of their wish list – in fact City have averaged 0.67 goals per game more at home than any other side since the start of last season.

15 of City’s 19 home wins since the start of last season have been after leading at half-time and 16 have been by at least two goals. They have conceded in nine of their 10 home games against top-half teams in this time, but despite that they’ve recorded eight Win/Win doubles and seven victories by more than one goal as seven of the games have had at least four strikes.

United have travelled to three of the bottom four this season, and to West Brom, a team many have tipped to be relegated, yet they remain winless away from Old Trafford. Home or away last season, they picked up just one win against the top six as they suffered seven Loss/Loss doubles and five defeats by more than one goal.

City have been inconsistent for much of this season but a home derby should motivate them to find their best form, and against a shaky looking United team with several injury doubts they are worth backing at 1.95. However, City have conceded in seven of their last eight matches while United are dangerous in attack so Over 3.5 Goals looks a good price at 2.65 while City to win with Both Teams to Score can be backed at 3.5. 

For all Bayern’s excellence over the past two seasons they’ve won just one of their four league meetings with Dortmund, and in the two years before that when Dortmund were winning the league they lost all four of their meetings. Right now, however, anything but a home win would be a huge shock.

Dortmund are in dire form having picked up just one point from their last six matches and they are 15 points worse off than at this stage 12 months ago. Injuries and the departure of key players have played a part but they weren’t missing too many first choice players at the weekend and there has been a general loss of form and confidence across the whole squad after recent results. They are yet to keep a clean sheet this season and have conceded twice in each of their away matches. Furthermore, 15 of their last 17 away games have had at least three goals and eight have had four or more as they’ve only failed to score twice in those games.

In contrast to Dortmund’s leaky defence Bayern have not conceded in seven consecutive games. They’ve won 20 of 22 home games since the start of last season and their two failures – including defeat to Dortmund – came after the league was wrapped up. Furthermore, 15 of the wins have been by more than one goal and 12 of their last 14 home victories have been having led at half-time.

This is the last place Jurgen Klopp would want to be heading at the moment and while they may benefit from having the expectation of favourites lifted that surely wont be enough for them to avoid another loss. Bayern simply look too good for the rest of the league and deserve to be backed at 2.2 to record the Win/Win double. 

Furthermore, we certainly wouldn’t put anyone off backing Over 3.5 Goals at 2.3. Arjen Robben missed Bayern’s 0-0 last weekend but is set to return here and since 2012/13 they’ve won 33 of the 34 matches he’s started and completed at least an hour of, averaging 3.12 goals per game with him compared to just 2.49 gpg without.

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